40 Days And 40 Nights

Courtesy: Reuters
While we have been inundated with candidates vying for coverage on network television, monthly Republican debates, and countless Trumpisms, the official kickoff of the 2016 election season, the Iowa Caucuses, is 40 days away. During the next 40 days, we are bound to see the expected happen and, if the past few months have taught us anything, we will also be witness to some surprises and head-scratchers. Here is what I believe the last leg of the pre-primary season has in store:

I predict two more candidates will drop out soon - George Pataki and Jim Gilmore. Yes, they are actually still in the race, and yes, no one besides them knows why.

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There is only one thing that will get Rand Paul out of the race before Iowa, and it is if his polling keeps him off the main debate stage in January. Paul has cracked 4% in only one recent poll, and has gained no traction from any debate performances. If he doesn’t qualify for the main debate on January 14th, he’ll be out soon after that and his paltry amount of supporters will move to Ted Cruz.

Expect Trumpisms on a weekly basis leading up to Iowa. Love him or hate him, you have to admit that Trump knows how to drive the conversation to what he wants to talk about. And the media just eat it up. What the topics will be in the coming weeks I have no way of predicting. But he will be steering the conversation, and we are just along for the ride.

I expect Jeb Bush to try to reset his campaign again in January. I believe he considers Iowa a lost cause at this point, especially since he is averaging a very distant 5th place in all the latest polls. So, he will focus on New Hampshire, where is also in 5th place, but with a better shot of moving up in the ranks. None of this will work mind you. But since Bush has plenty of cash and the family ego, he won’t bow out of the race unless the establishment begs him to so his supporters can back the establishment’s newest favorite Marco Rubio.

If you’re looking for an increase in the attacks the candidates make on Hillary Clinton, you’ll be waiting more than 40 days. The candidates are focusing on Iowa and the other primaries that will soon follow that, so attacks on Hillary, or Sanders if anyone wants to legitimize him, will continue to be at a minimum. Attacks on each other, especially over Republican prime meat issues, will increase.

Donald Trump and Megyn Kelly: Round 2 - The face off will happen again just days before the Iowa caucuses. Don’t expect an apology from Trump, but do expect fireworks. If Trump falls even further in the polls behind Cruz in Iowa (which I predict he will), he’s going to need to do something to get in the news cycle right before February 1st.
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